Hotter Temperatures Mean More Hit Batsmen in Baseball

During spring training, Major League pitchers work on fine-tuning their mechanics and strengthening their legs so they don't break down during the dog days of summer.

It's doubtful these pitchers will give much thought to what the July heat might do to their brains, but perhaps they should.

A new study led by researchers from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business has found pitchers whose teammates get hit by a pitch are more likely to retaliate and plunk an opposing batter when the temperature reaches 90 degrees than when it is cooler. But if no one has been hit in the game, then high temperatures have little effect on a pitcher's behavior.

"We found that heat does not lead to more aggression in general," said Richard Larrick, a management professor at Fuqua. "Instead, heat affects a specific form of aggression. It increases retribution."

Major League statistics show there were 1,549 incidents of hit batsmen last season, an average of .64 hit-by-pitch incidents per game. Most pitchers are not intentionally beaning batters, as a hit batsman automatically proceeds to first base and increases the chances that his team will score, Larrick said. Despite that advantage, pitchers and team managers admit they sometimes target batters on purpose.

"When a batter is hit by the opposing team, his teammates don't know if it was an accident or deliberate," said Larrick, who also holds an appointment in the department of psychology and neuroscience. "We think hotter temperatures make a pitcher more likely to see the action as deliberate and hostile. And once a pitcher feels provoked, hotter temperatures increase feelings of revenge."

The study, which appears in the March 2011 issue of the journal Psychological Science, examined 57,293 Major League Baseball games from 1952 through 2009 -- roughly 4.5 million matchups between a pitcher and a hitter. Temperature was more predictive of struck batsmen if the opposing team's pitcher had already beaned one or more hitters. For example, if temperatures were in the 50s during a game, there was a 22 percent chance a pitcher would hit a batter if a precipitating pitch occurred in the first inning of a game. When temperatures were in the 90s, the retaliation risk rose to 27 percent.

To make sure other factors weren't confounding the link between temperature and hit batsmen, the researchers analyzed variables that might affect a pitcher's performance, including indicators of pitcher inaccuracy such as wild pitches, and other measures such as errors by the team, the year the game was played, where the game was played, inning and score.

"It was important to sort out whether heat tends to increase aggressive behavior, such as retribution, or whether it leads pitchers to be less accurate with their pitches," said Larrick.

Larrick, a longtime St. Louis Cardinals fan, first examined the link between heat and pitcher retaliation as a graduate student, but couldn't amass enough data -- at least not by poring through microfilms. He decided to revisit the question more recently because historical play-by-play game transcripts have been posted online by dedicated baseball fans.

As an expert in behavioral science, Larrick expected to find a connection between heat and aggression. "There are decades of research showing heat leads to aggression, like finding more violent crime in the summer," he said. "But in crime statistics, it's hard to really determine if it's heat or other things. One of the nice things about studying baseball is that we're able to control for factors besides heat."

Larrick said he was surprised that the "a batter for a batter" tradition of retaliation does not always hold. "Baseball fans will tell you the sport's code of honor dictates you're supposed to hit a player on the other team when your player has been hit," he said. "Nobody seems to be aware that players apply the rule much more at high temperatures than at cool temperatures."

Other authors of the study include Andrew Carton of Fuqua; Thomas A. Timmerman, Tennessee Technological University; and Jason Abrevaya, University of Texas.
The research report is available online at: http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/02/23/0956797611399292.full.pdf+htm

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Braves release Tom Glavine

The Atlanta Braves announced June 3 that pitcher Tom Glavine has been released. Glavine, 43, underwent left elbow surgery on August 15, 2008 and signed a one-year contract with the Braves on February 20th for the 2009 season.

Following surgery late in the 2008 season, Glavine attempted to rehabilitate his surgically repaired left elbow during the offseason and followed that with four rehabilitation starts in 2009.

"We appreciate and respect everything Tom has done for and brought to the Atlanta Braves organization and our fans," said Executive Vice President and General Manager Frank Wren. "His accomplishments for our club during his hall of fame career is a measure of his dedication that we will always respect and admire. We wish him nothing but the very best."

A two-time National League Cy Young Award winner (1991 & 1998) and a 10-time N.L. All-Star, Glavine returned to the Braves in 2008 after pitching five seasons (2003-07) for the New York Mets. He went 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA and started just 13 games in an injury-shortened campaign in 2008. Glavine owns a 305-203 career record and a 3.54 ERA in 682 games (all starts). He has compiled 244 of his wins in a Braves uniform. Glavine helped Atlanta to five World Series appearances in the 1990s and was named the Most Valuable Player of the 1995 World Series, when the Braves defeated the Cleveland Indians.

A five-time 20-game winner, the 42-year-old Glavine joined an elite fraternity of pitchers when he posted the 300th victory of his career on August 5, 2007, at Chicago. Only 22 other pitchers in the history of Major League Baseball have reached that plateau, and all but two (Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux) are enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Glavine ranks as the fourth-winningest left-handed pitcher in history, behind Warren Spahn (363), Steve Carlton (329) and Eddie Plank (326).

Selected by the Braves in the second round of the 1984 draft, Glavine made his Major League debut in 1987. He won his first Cy Young Award in 1991, when he went 20-11 and helped the Braves win the first of five N.L. pennants in a nine-year period. Glavine earned his second Cy Young Award in 1998, leading the league with a 20-6 record, ranking third with a 2.47 ERA and again helping the Braves to an N.L. pennant.

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Braves' Hanson Named AFL's Pitcher of the Week

Scottsdale Scorpions infielder Drew Sutton (HOU) and Mesa Solar Sox starting right-handed pitcher Tommy Hanson (ATL) are the Arizona Fall League's week two player of the week and pitcher of the week, respectively.

Sutton - Sutton hit a robust .643 (9-14) last week in four games, including two home runs and five runs batted in. He posted a .667 on-base percentage and 1.143 slugging percentage.

The Fall League's leading hitter at .600 (12-20) two weeks into its 17th season, the 6-3, 190-pound Sutton also leads in on-base percentage (.680) and slugging percentage (1.000).

The 25-year-old Jackson, Tennessee native and former Baylor star was the Astros' 15th-round selection in the 2004 draft. He hit .317 in 2008 at Double-A Corpus Christi with 20 home runs, 63 extra-base hits, 69 runs batted in, and 20 stolen bases.

Other player-of-the-week nominees were Phoenix Desert Dogs' outfielder Eric Young, Jr. (COL) and Peoria Saguaros infielder Daniel Murphy (NYM).

Hanson - The 6-6, 210-pound Hanson was nearly perfect last week, winning both his starts while allowing only one hit over 6.2 innings pitched. In his most recent start last Saturday, Oct. 18 vs. the frontrunning 8-2 Peoria Saguaros, Hanson struck out eight of the first nine hitters.

The 22-year-old Tulsa, Oklahoma native, who has allowed just one hit in 8.2 innings overall, is riding a streak of 8.1 consecutive hitless innings. He has not allowed a hit since a one-out single by Young in the first inning of Hanson's first start on Opening Day (Oct. 7). His earned-run average is 0.00 and he is one of three Fall League pitchers with two wins. He owns 14 strikeouts against three walks.

Hanson, who played college baseball at Riverside (CA) Community College, was the Braves' 22nd-round selection in the 2005 Draft. After starting 2008 at Advanced-A Myrtle Beach where he was 3-1 with a 0.90 earned-run average in seven starts, Hanson was promoted to Double-A Mississippi where he was 8-4 with a 3.03 earned-run average in 18 starts. He struck out 114 batters in 98 innings while allowing only 70 hits. Two other right-handers - Scottsdale Scorpion Clay Buchholz (BOS) and Peoria Saguaro Tobi Stoner (NYM) - were nominated for pitcher-of-the-week.

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